As the Trump trade war comes to a crossroads in the next couple weeks, Louisiana, more so than most of states, stands to either profit handsomely or slip into a recession that would make the last one seem tame.

If President Donald Trump loses the war, the nation can expect dramatically higher prices for goods and the nation’s already sliding income will fall into recession.

It’ll be a lot worse in Louisiana because international shipping accounts for 39 percent of the state’s $243 billion gross domestic product, in 2017, and 553,200 jobs. Louisiana is looking at massive layoffs and $7.1 billion worth of lost business, according to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the lobbyists for major industries in Washington, D.C.

Those numbers are repeated by less partisan organizations like the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, which ranked Louisiana as one of the most vulnerable states to a trade war. The state’s gross domestic product could drop of by about 7 percent or a reduction of more than $3,500 per person.

The state’s major gubernatorial candidates – the Democratic incumbent and the two best-funded Republicans – are supportive of President Donald Trump’s efforts but wary that the economic damage could overwhelm everything else at the outset of the four-year term of whoever wins this Saturday’s election for governor. If nobody wins outright, the top two vote-getters meet Nov. 16 in a winner-take all general election.

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